Authors: Sina Rühland (UFZ)

Christmas 2023 was anything but peaceful for many people in Saxony. Instead of enjoying cozy Christmas walks in the snow, they found themselves pumping water out of their basements or fleeing from the floods with only the essentials. Heavy, continuous rain and snowmelt from rising temperatures caused rivers to overflow in many areas. In Dresden, the Elbe River surged to a level of 5.95 meters, far exceeding its average of 1.4 meters. Zwickau and Leipzig were also hit hard. Frank Haubold from Wednig near Trebsen (Leipzig district) experienced the consequences firsthand: after the flood events of 2002 and 2013, his home had to be evacuated for the third time. He was able to rely on the solidarity of his neighbors and found refuge with other residents of the village. Unfortunately, not everyone was so fortunate to escape.

In recent years, Germany has repeatedly faced fatalities due to devastating floods. In June 2024 alone, six people died nationwide. The Ahrtal flood of 2021 claimed more than 180 lives in Germany, and one person still missing to this day. In Saxony, the flood incidents of 2002 and 2013 are particularly memorable: 2002 saw 21 fatalities and approximately 9 billion euros in damages. Fortunately, no people lost their lives due to flooding in the Free State of Saxony in 2013. The damage amounted to 2 billion euros. 

These recurring events highlight a major challenge we must face: the protection gap in flood self-protection. Only about 54% of residential buildings in Germany are insured against natural hazards like floods and inundations. Despite the fact, that heavy rain can cause flooding anywhere, regardless of proximity to rivers. But why does this protection gap exist? Behavioral psychology offers several approaches to explain this phenomenon. Many of those theories are based on the perception of risk and efficacy of actions – how well people are informed about the actual risk, potential damage, and action options regarding their personal property play a central role in their adaptive behavior. 

An instrument that specifically addresses these aspects is the flood preparedness certificate for buildings. It involves two phases: first, experts conduct a risk analysis at the house and identify the protection gap. Then, specialists develop a concept of non-structural measures (including cost estimates) to reduce the potential impact of flooding on the building and thus the extent of the damage. Both the assessment and the implementation of measures are subsidized by the Saxon Development Bank at 80% and 50% respectively. Thus, a certain financial contribution remains on the individual level. However, it should be carefully weighed against the damage potential of upcoming floods. Many people in Saxony have already been affected by flood damage on several occasions– and climate forecasts indicate an increasing trend in this issue. The combination of protection due to insurance and structural measures, as well as the right behavior in emergencies, is crucial. Awareness-raising and appropriate adaptation are key factors in the fight against flooding.